Euro’s Predictions : BARS

Bronwyn’s podium :

  1. ALIYA MUSTAFINA
  2. BETH TWEDDLE
  3. TATIANA NABIEVA 

Some will think that I’m going out on a biased limb by picking Mustafina here, but if she throws her new combination (stalder 1/1 + Tkatchev + Pak + immediate stalder Shap ½), that’ll put her at a 7.1. If she can stay around an 8.8 e-score, that puts her at almost a 16. Aliya vs. Beth could be the most exciting showdown of the entire competition, actually. Even if she stays with her regular routine, she’ll give Tweddle a run for her money.

You can watch Aliya’s new transition from podium training over at The Examiner here.

Hopefully Nabs won’t make a mess of things in qualifying. I thought she’d do some tweaking to her potentially fantastic bars set, but it was the same-old-thang in Bercy.

Those giants before her dismount are most offensive, but with some cleaning up, she should be on the podium.

Elisabeth Seitz would be my pick for unlucky 4th.

Here she is at Cottbus, showcasing a daring (albeit messy) Def for a 14.7 (6.6) :

Mustafina & Tweddle are really the cream of the crop here.

My darkhorse to make bars finals:  Lovely Lithuanian, Laura Svilpaite with a hopefully upgraded set. Here’s her set from Rotterdam.

Clara’s podium :

  1.  BETH TWEDDLE
  2. ALIYA MUSTAFINA
  3. TATIANA NABIEVA

This one would appear to be a Tweddle v Mustafina showdown, as with the last two major bars finals. Both of them finished with Beth on top. Will this be different?

Mustafina looked strong on bars at Scam & at Bercy – At Scam, it was the only event where she truly impressed:

Additionally, she’s extremely consistent on this event, which Tweddle historically hasn’t always been.

Beth is obviously working on some upgrades. The set she showed at the English Championships a couple of weeks ago, already brought to you by Stoi!, is very obviously a work in progress. It was only a 6.7 D score, less than she showed in Rotterdam.

The last time Beth showed a radically different but easier set at Euros was in 2008:

That was the precursor to her doing arguably the most difficult set ever performed, and certainly the hardest of the quad, in Beijing. Of course, on both occasions, she ended up in 4th place, so maybe that’s an omen. Allegedly, she was training the double-double the last time she competed. Perhaps this will be the competition when it finally makes its way into the competitive routine?

The supporting cast are also of interest, even in the absence of usual finalists Dufournet and Downie. We’ve already discussed the upgrades from Porgras, and it’s not like anyone else from Romania is going to be the running. Porgras’s set in Bercy wasn’t the improvement we expected it to be, but maybe just needs some fine tuning (in very short notice) :

Blythe was blogging from Bercy, and referred to it as “flat.” We concur.

Nabieva is a reasonable bet for bronze if she can manage to stay on, given that she broke 15 in Rotterdam when she didn’t fuck up. She seems to save her bars crashes for TF’s after all. If she does fall in prelims, Dementyeva will probably make the final, and if so, she’s not an entirely implausible medallist.

Looking eastwards, it’s unclear how strong the Ukrainian challenge will be. Koval is battling injury and barely training at the moment. Kononenko charmed us all to take bronze last year in Birmingham, but it’s unclear whether she’ll even be in Berlin. Ferrari is always a good bet for European bars and floor finals, and Seitz is a potential challenger with her release-tastic set if she can avoid going splat again.

She probably wants to forget both Worlds and Euros from last year, but someone with this much potential has to hit the fuck out of her set in some major final, sometime. This routine is actually amazing when nobody buttered the bars.

<3, Bronwyn & Clara

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2 responses to “Euro’s Predictions : BARS

  • Stoi!

    Agreed, Lottie.

    After the “Nabieva” release, I just get kind of bored.

    And expect her to miss a handstand or 5…

    -B

  • Lottie

    Firstly, please keep up the excellent work – am loving the blog as ever!
    Am I the only one who is disappointed by the fact that Nabieva doesn’t seem to have made any changes to her bars set? She has so much potential and I want her to do well and pull it together, if only to prove all the haters wrong…

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