Euro’s Predictions : VAULT

We were sort of waiting to post this until we saw what was going on in Bercy this weekend. Alas, our choices haven’t really changed.

Bronwyn’s podium :

  1. ALIYA MUSTAFINA
  2. TATIANA NABIEVA (you all hate me for this, I know)
  3. OKSANA CHUSOVITINA 

Chuso, taking a break from both menopause and coaching Elizarova, vaulted a handspring kind-of-layout front 1/1 and a Tsuk 1 ½ (5.9/5.5) for a 14.312 average at Cottbus recently :

Something tells me that besties, Musty and Nabs, will creep into the mid 14’s with watered down DTY’s and fugtastic Pods – piked or “laid-out” TBD.

Edit/Bercy French Int’l alert – After vaulting an easy Omelianchik in quals, Mustafina pulled out “her” vault in finals earlier today.

This puts her head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of scoring potential. I suspect she’ll go for either the Ro 1/2 on handspring front “layout” 1/1, or the Amanar in finals.

Nabieva was doing something that slightly resembled an “attempt” at an “Amanar” in training last weekend, but was nowhere close.

If she doesn’t break her neck, or her legs/ankles rather, she should be able to hobble up to the podium to play forever-bridesmaid to her best friend.

But Chuso also has home crowd advantage.

This would be a nice podium simply for the fact that Chuso is actually Aliya and Tatiana’s biological grandmother. A real family affair, if you will.

Vault is probably the event I could care the least about, so Clara will elaborate on her choices.

Clara’s podium :

  1. ALIYA MUSTAFINA
  2. OKSANA CHUSOVITINA
  3. SANDRA IZBASA

This is looking like one of the deeper fields.

Previous multiple-finalists, Youna Dufournet and Becky Downie will be absent, but there are a number of other contenders. As with last year, we may potentially see a certain amount of D-score clumping amongst the finalists, which always makes things interesting.

The Russian contingent should be strong, heinous leg form and all. Both Nabieva and Mustafina are virtually guaranteed to make finals. I would guess they’ll both probably water down a bit from Worlds and throw Pod’s as a second vault rather than the Mustafina; although it would be really interesting to see how they respond to the recent FIG clarification on the piked twisting vault issue.

But I think it’s a fair bet that we’ll see at least one Amanar out of them. Mustafina apparently wasn’t ready to do hers at Scam, but that didn’t stop her throwing it anyway:

Chusovitina is also likely to be there. As Bronwyn mentioned, she recently won vault at Cottbus. She’s developed an unfortunate habit this quad of crashing vault in prelims and not making the final, so let’s hope she stops the rot this time round.

Swiss Miss Ariella Kaeslin will also be in attendance. She was pretty underpar in 2010, missing both world and European podiums. Additionally, her DTY attempt is really playing with fire.

Worlds judging panels let her away with that, Euros judges won’t. I really like her though, so I hope she sticks to the Yurchenko 1.5, doesn’t go to the pub the night before EFs like last year, and generally gets her shit together.

Romania have traditionally been very strong vaulters, with some of the best in history coming from their ranks, but haven’t had a serious vault challenger since Rosu retired. However, Izbasa has now developed a legitimate second vault.

(@ :26)

Not a bad quality LO Pod, for a training vault. If she can do her usual big DTY (and those 1.5s in the training video aren’t shit hot, so it isn’t a guarantee), she could contend for minor medals.

There’s also Chelaru, if she can actually do her second vault properly. Looking westwards, I’m not sure yet who Britain are taking, but Imogen Cairns must surely be in the running in the absence of Downie and Hibbert. And she’s been in half a dozen big finals, so she’s worth a punt for top 8 too.

– Bronwyn & Clara

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7 responses to “Euro’s Predictions : VAULT

  • Stoi!

    Just pulling your leg Vanessa – for fun.

    ;D

  • Stoi!

    We do believe in our hearts that she is. What their family trees actually say is a different thing altogether.
    C

  • vanessa steck

    wait wait wait WAIT. Chuso is Musty and Nabs’ bio grandma? Is that for sure? How do we know? are those 2 related? I HAD NO IDEA. (or were you just fucking with us and now I look like an idiot?)
    this is seriously the best thing I’ve heard in ages.

  • Stoi!

    I agree with you about the form issues, Lizzie, but the thing is : they’re not really getting penalized for it. So why change it?

    Wait, that’s not fair. To rephrase, this code only takes off a tenth here for bent knees, and a tenth here for a leg sep, and a tenth here for crossed ankles in both the pre-flight/post-flight phases. They’re giving them the proper deductions, but I think a lot of people think that they should be deducted more for fugliness. I agree with that, but it’s just not going to happen. Revisions need to be made.

    Mustafina’s Amanar shouldn’t be scoring within a tenth of Wieber’s, and Nabieva’s shouldn’t be scoring within a tenth of Mustafina’s, no.

    Buth Mustafina and Nabieva are incredibly dynamic. They were blessed with raw power (emphasis on RAW). Obviously, the technique was overlooked, and I’m frankly shocked that they can produce the type of power on their vaults that they do. They both chuck vaults without a doubt. Mustafina’s pre-flight on her plain old Omelianchik is pretty damn good – but as soon as she knows she’s adding a twist to it, knees, legs, arms, all go out the window. Somehow, someway, her feet still manage to hit the mat first.

    -B

  • Stoi!

    In all fairness, the current crop aren’t the first Russians to showcase some poor vault form. Zamolodchikova’s Tsuk was pretty bad towards the end, and some of St Produnova’s many vaults had horrific execution. The Phelps and layout fronts were particular lows.

    At the moment though, it doesn’t particularly surprise me that Russia are concentrating on dynamics rather than form. It’s because the code rewards that more. So it makes sense, and that’s why they’re getting such big scores.

    It is weird though how the US have just swapped their best and worst events in the space of a few years. Nobody would ever have thought in 04 or even in 06 that the US would have a bars specialist shaped hole in the lineup in 08!

    C

  • Stoi!

    Thank you. But let’s see if you’re still saying that after it turns out we’ve not got a single one right!

  • Ashlyn

    You guys are seriously fucking amazing. I LOVE your blog.

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