Euro’s Predictions – All-Around.

Part 1 of our 5-part predictions.

Schedule (thanks to Nora from The All-Around forum) :

April 4th & 5th 2011
Women’s and men’s podium training

April 6th 2011
Women’s qualification 10:30 a.m.

April 7th 2011
Men’s qualification 10:00 a.m.

April 8th 2011
Official opening ceremony and men’s all-around final 1:00 p.m.
Women’s all-around final 7:00 p.m.

April 9th 2011
Men’s (3) and women’s (2) apparatus finals 1:30 p.m.

April 10th 2011
Men’s (3) and women’s (2) apparatus finals 2:00 p.m.

What should have happened…

It’s old news by now, but Viktoria Komova is officially out of Euro’s. It’s highly possible that she’ll never be European All-Around champion.

We hope that she has Pavlova-like staying power, minus Pavs penchant for bad luck.

Komova being out is is good news for Aliya Mustafina (and everyone else), but bad news for ticket holders – let’s face it kids; this field is quite depleted.

Nevertheless, we’ve compiled a list of potential medal winners in Berlin next month. 

Bronwyn’s podium :

  1. ALIYA MUSTAFINA
  2. ANA PORGRAS
  3. ANNA DEMENTYEVA

With Komova out, this gives Dementyeva a chance to compete All-Around, and even end up on the podium. She was looking (and scoring) better than ever at Russian Championships in Penza. Still, I consider her a headcase (and she’s just a kid), so there’s always the chance that she’ll splat at some point. If Dementyeva manages to stay on her feet, Kaeslin is my pick for the unlucky 4th place.

Mustafina is obviously the overwhelming favorite in the absence of Komova, and won’t even need her Amanar for what should be an easy win.

My biggest question/complaint – will Porgras pull out a DTY or will this podium have two gymnasts vaulting an FTY?

Umm, Hello muthafuckin’ 1990!!!

Clara’s podium :

  1. ALIYA MUSTAFINA
  2. ANA PORGRAS
  3. ANNA DEMENTYEVA

Admittedly, this field does have a Komova-shaped hole in it, but I don’t necessarily share Bronwyn’s let down feeling.

Obviously this is Mustafina’s to lose. She didn’t look vintage at Scam, but has a month to pull herself together inbetween, and her difficulty is vastly superior to anyone else’s.

With that said, I could see her managing to throw it away in the following circumstance : If she has a fall, and Porgras not only goes 4 -4, but also manages to successfully compete the DTY that she’s been training.

Personally, I’d rather have Ana wrapped in cotton wool and kept healthy enough to win the 2012 Olympic beam final, but that’s not how the Romanians roll. Either way, I don’t think we’ll have 2 FTYs on the AA podium.

No video footage has emerged, that I know of showing Porgras training the DTY. She has  however worked Huang Qiushuang’s combination on bars, which she now uses in place of the stalder 1.5.

See 0:47 :

While it won’t boost her D score, she virtually always missed handstand on the 1.5 pirouette, so in theory, this upgrade could improve her execution by a potentially crucial 0.5. Let’s hope the stalder 1.5 is gone for good.

It may be worth noting that Belu kept all the Romanians home from Cottbus at short notice. While it’s possible that the late, athlete-unfriendly format change had something to do with it, there’s precedent for Romanian athletes being pulled out at the last minute when they’re not looking up to scratch.

Initially, they would have seemed to be the obvious beneficiaries from Komova’s withdrawal. But it’s one thing for an opportunity to be there, quite another to exploit it. It’s unfortunate for them that their best junior (Iordache) isn’t available this year.

(OT, but I really like the way the Romanians post so many training videos these days. Mother Russia could totally learn from that)

Dementyeva has the other Russian A-A spot over Nabieva as things stand, so she would appear to be a leading contender for a minor medal. Her vault isn’t up to scratch, but she can post big scores on the other 3 events if she just manages to stay on her feet.

Kaeslin and Ferrari were all in the top 10 or thereabouts at Worlds. Ferrari is obviously working at a much lower skill level than in her heyday, but she’s an obscenely tough competitor. Kaeslin is actually the reigning European bronze medallist, but I think it’s fair to say that she isn’t the gymnast now that she was in 2009.

Hannah Whelan is likely to be top Brit, but I doubt she’ll bother the top 5. She’s another one who did not impress much at Scam, although that whip-triple is nice.

I doubt France will have anyone in the running since Dufournet won’t be there. And they can’t use their 1996 girls.

Has anyone heard anything about Izurieta lately?

This is probably the first time that we’ve both agreed on the same podium btw…

Friends, please wage in and post your Euro’s AA predictions in the comments box!!!

<3,

Bronwyn & Clara

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7 responses to “Euro’s Predictions – All-Around.

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