Olympic Predictions : All-Around

List of qualifiers here.

We had to revamp this after qualifications. Never in our wildest dreams (or nightmares) would Aly Raisman qualify to all-around finals, but what’s done is done. Bronwyn thought that Jordyn’s beam & floor scores were a little on the stingy side, but no need for excuses. We don’t like the 2-per-country rule either (does anyone?), but this rule has been intact long before the games began. We also knew that there would be a chance that Jordyn would be bumped from finals. The less we talk about it, the better. The media eats this shit up, and we don’t want a big black cloud raining over the rest of the festivities.

Clara would just add the following points: firstly, that an athlete who broke 60 AA for a programme that included a messy bars set, an OOB on floor, and a beam set that connected virtually nothing has not been screwed, by any stretch of the imagination. And secondly, that the way gymnasts from other countries were scored has nothing to do with Wieber’s plight. She is out purely and simply because of her own teammates. As such, anyone wanting to bitch would do well to start with Raisman’s stunning overscore on floor.

And now to the main event.

With Wieber out, and Yao Jinnan and Larisa Iordache carrying injuries and looking very underwhelming in qualifications, this field seems to have lost a bit of it’s luster. But rather than dwelling on what coulda/shoula been, we make due with what we have. There is potential for a stunning podium – while it’s a damn shame that Grishina isn’t there and that Raisman defeated the much more watchable Wieber, what gymfan wouldn’t love a Mustafina, Douglas and Komova smackdown?

Clara : Pre-competition, my thoughts were that the depth of this field was very exciting. There looked to be more legitimate medal contenders than there have been for a long time; in 2008, there were really only 3 – and the question was just which order they’d finish. In 2004 there were 2 in the running for gold, 2 for bronze, and that was it. 2012 seemed different.

Clearly we will never going to see all the medal contenders in the final, thanks to the 2-per-country rule. Contrary to what some would believe, it was not invented purely to screw over Jordyn Wieber (indeed, per country limits were initially a response to Soviet dominance and the 2 berth rule was introduced following Romania’s clean sweep in Sydney. The teams who have suffered most because of it have been Eastern European). I had fully expected that Iordache + 2 US + 2 Chinese + 2 Russians would feature, all of whom could be potential medallists. That’s not going to happen now.

Poor Yao Jinnan doesn’t look healthy enough to be able to get through anything other than bars, though I respected the shit out of her save on floor the other day. She only qualified 3rd on her team because of this, and while China could sub her in for Deng Linlin, I fondly hope they’ll know when to give up. Iordache isn’t quite there either. Badly timed injuries are a terrible thing.

Anyways, this would appear to be Komova’s to lose. If she hits, nobody can beat her. I seem to have written this before, but qualifying in first place even with one notably underpar set is very impressive. I don’t expect her to actually hit floor – if she did, 14.5 would be plausible – but it would be realistic and reasonable to require a bit less of a quitters try on the final landing.

My suspicion is that we will see Komova v Douglas for gold, then Mustafina v Raisman for bronze. Of the four, Raisman is the only one who doesn’t have room to improve significantly from her prelims performance: the other three all had one weak routine that could easily score a point higher. It’s possibly notable that the two least consistent are the frontrunners. While Komova and Douglas will be ahead of their teammates if they go 4 for 4, they’re also both very capable of a beam fall and/or a floor mishap. Raisman likes to fuck up bars in World AA finals, but of course this isn’t Worlds. Don’t rule out Mustafina taking the big title simply on the basis that she hits better than the others. If I had to bet my house on one of them not falling or failing, it would be her.

Bronwyn :

Gym fans are talking about Mustafina needing an Amanar to win. No, she doesn’t. She’s not going to get more than a few more tenths tacked onto her DTY score, so why risk injuring herself? Her bars cancel out her lack of an Amanar.

Where she needs to make up the points from preliminaries (and Team Finals) is on beam.

That (generous) 14.7 would have been a 15.2’ish without the myriad of wobbles and broken connections.

Still, her 60.2 from Team Finals was an improvement on her preliminaries score, and with a biffed beam set.

She was most impressive last night on floor exercise – that routine has really grown on me.

Like in Tokyo, this seems like Komova’s to lose. What annoys me the most about Komova’s otherwise stunning work is the way she flakes out on landings. On floor, she takes a step (or several), throws her arms down, and walks to the corner. Also true of how she works on beam. If it isn’t 100% perfect, she makes no effort in covering it up. At least if Mustafina is going to take a step, she dresses it up and minimizes the deduction.

Now that she’s safely vaulting the Amanar, she should be the leader after two rotations. I’m almost expecting some form of disaster in the last two rotations, but if she can make it through beam and floor relatively unscathed, she should be right in there for the title.

Who would have thought prior to the competition that Gabby Douglas would be the picture of consistency? My question with her is whether or not she’ll be able to keep it up, and how much I she has in team. Will she be able to hit when it’s for herself? I see her narrowly trailing Komova after vault and bars. They’re both fantastic on beam when they hit. Can Gabby make it 3 in a row? Where she has the edge on Komova is floor – she’s capable of 15’s when she’s on, or > 14 when she’s off, like she was in preliminaries. In order for Komova or Mustafina to top the podium, they’re going to need to be nearly flawless, and hope Gabby has some type of catastrophic mistake.

Clara’s “dream” All-Around podium :

1. Aliya Mustafina

2. Viktoria Komova

3. Gabby Douglas

But these three in any order would be more than acceptable. Iordache just doesn’t look like she can do it.

Bronwyn’s “dream” All-Around podium :

1. Viktoria Komova

2. Aliya Mustafina

3. Gabby Douglas

Clara’s “actual” All-Around  podium :

1. Gabby Douglas

2. Aliya Mustafina

3. Aly Raisman

Bronwyn’s “actual” All-Around podium”

1. Gabby Douglas

2. Viktoria Komova

3. Aliya Mustafina

Startlist for tomorow is posted here.

Top group :

Vault : Douglas, Raisman, Komova, Ferrari, Deng, Mustafina
Bars : Raisman, Komova, Ferrari, Deng, Mustafina, Douglas
Beam : Komova, Ferrari, Deng, Mustafina, Douglas, Raisman
Floor : Ferrari, Deng, Mustafina, Douglas, Raisman, Komova

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19 responses to “Olympic Predictions : All-Around

  • Alison Clements

    Well done Bronwyn, spot on!

    • Stoi!

      Well, I suppose my “actual” podium was spot on, but my dream podium wasn’t meant to be.
      :(

      B.

      • M

        Yeah it was spot on. I was hoping your dream podium would have come true as well.

      • M

        No I take that back, I wanted Clara’s dream podium to come true, being a huge Musty fan and all, but I guess Musty or Vik being first would have suffice.

      • Alison Clements

        Shame I agree, but both Russians did for themselves with unnecessary quitting after a slightly less than perfect landing – Komova on vault and Musty on beam. It was totally unnecessary for Komova to run off the mat like she did, and with the extra that she lost doing that – she would have won.

      • Christiane

        So hard to see my golden girl sobbing… I am proud of you, Vika!! You did beautifully on floor. Congratulations to Mr. Alexandrov for a job well done. Two gymnasts on the podium, wow. Not in the places I wanted to see them, but still a great achievement.

  • What to Watch For in the Women’s Gymnastics All-Around Final, in GIFs | Con Games

    [...] tired, and if she doesn't land her tumbling pass, she sort of gives up, as the gymnastics blog Stoi points out. Watch to see if she gives away points there. In between tumbling passes, watch how [...]

  • Sofia

    It might work in Komova’s favour that she’s on floor for the last rotation. She can go for broke on her landings, to hell with her ankles, she won’t need them anymore if she pulls this off.

    I agree with your ideal podium (the Russians could be the other way round too). I just don’t want Raisman anywhere near a medal for the assault on my eyes that she will doubtlessly carry out.

  • A

    Thank fucking god, you guys are a breath of fresh air!!! You make so much sense!!!

    Some morons think this was a plot bt Marta, NBC, and the judges…. WTF? Why would NBC prefer national champ vs a nobody to national champ vs world champ??? I wouldn’t put it past Marta (that bitch) to favor Gabby, but it was Aly that knocked Jordyn out, not Gabby… and Marta has shown no signs of preferring Aly to Jordyn. In fact Bela was publicly angry about Aly going over Jordyn.

  • Jay

    Nice and wise prediction. Do you think it is possible for Aly to give her place in the finals to Jordine?

  • G

    God save gymnastics from Raisman

  • Christiane

    Well, before this all started I would completely doubt anyone considering Douglas on the AA podium; not because of her gymnastics, which is good, but because of her nerves mostly, after all these are the Olympics. However, after seeing her, Kyla and the rest of the US team compete as if they are in their backyards, I now admit she can win Gold. Aly can win Gold too, if Douglas allows (okay, I am desperate). I have to admit I am truly impressed with their mental strengh and complete coolness in that arena. Whatever Martha tells them, it works!

    As for Aliya and Vika, I don’t know what to say… they seem so emotionally fragile. If everything goes well fine, but if they wobble a bit then their world completely falls apart. Somehow, they HAVE to focus more tomorrow and deliver what they can do! COME ON!!! Enough with the crying and let’s show the world what gymnastics is all about! You guys mess up tomorrow and I will start watching tennis instead!

  • Kristen

    Though I could also envision a scenario where the top 3 girls have mistakes and a certain, ever steady Aly Raisman snatches the top prize.

  • samu

    for me, rotations 1 to 3 are pretty much predictable if everyone hits

    rotation 1

    gabby
    vika
    aly
    musty

    rotation 2

    vika
    gabby
    musty
    aly

    rotation 3

    vika
    gabby
    musty
    aly

    now, rotation 4 is tricky. Vika can score at mos a 14.5ish.Gabby can crack the 15’s (at most 15.1) that can really build a lot of ground for her to overtake vika.

    while musty’s bars pretty much cancels out aly’s lead on vault and beam, Aly’s overscored floor might just be enough for her to overtake musty. For musty to keep her lead, she has 2 options(1. freakin make her connections on beam and get rid of the wobbles 2. be a little more perfect on her bars) From the 4 top contenders, musty is the one who has no room for errors. she just couldnt afford it. not without a good old 15.8ish scoring amanar.

    On the other hand, anything can happen. You are right when you said that gabby and vika can be inconsistent. Among the 4, musty is the one that hits when it counts and is the most mentally tough. One major fall from the other 3 musty most assuredly gets on that podium.

  • A

    There’ll be plenty of tears in the top group… but at least Deng can be relied upon to bring some Chinese stoicism, right?

    More seriously, Komova’s been given a terrible draw. She’ll be twiddling her thumbs for almost an hour between BB and FX.

  • Kristen

    I would be so happy if those 3 won medals in any order. I love watching all of them!

  • M

    “athlete who broke 60 AA for a programme that included a messy bars set, an OOB on floor, and a beam set that connected virtually nothing has not been screwed, by any stretch of the imagination.”

    Well said.

    It’s too bad about Ya and Iordache – injuries are a heck of a thing, i still hope Iordache can do well tomorrow.

    As for Grishina not making it, this was not her Olympics – she doesn’t have the experience and she made many mistakes (bars didn’t even score in 15’s! and especially on floor. I think bars judges are being a bit stingy though, especially for Musty’s scores.

    I do think Gold is between Douglas and Komova. However, I really want Musty to be up there, imagine if she goes lights out and wins – that would be a great comeback for her after such a terrible injury last year. She lacks the confidence that she had in 2010; however, I think if she can just calm her nerves anything is possible. I also agree she doesn’t need to do the amanar. Her DYT gets a great score.

    Komova starts first in the rotation on beam? damn, hope she fights those nerves.

    Tomorrow will be interesting.

    Hope all is well with Clara and her baby! (if she had her that is).

  • Julia

    Really hoping Russia takes home the gold. I’m almost too nervous to watch.

  • Roxana

    I’m just so sad for Lari. I don’t know if you know, but Bitang said yesterday after TF, that just before competition, Lari tore her hand’s skin on UB and she competed with a hole in her hand. There was blood on the UB after her exercise. That explains her 13.7 score on UB, I think. Yes, she should have been familiar to grips, but what is done, is done. My hat is off for a gymnast that is really competiting in a leg and in a hand!

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